The Question I Get Asked More Than Any Other
Every week, someone asks me some version of the same question: is now a good time to buy in Austin?
There isn't a universal yes or no. But there is an honest answer, and it starts with what the data actually shows instead of what feels true based on headlines.
Here's what I'm tracking right now, and what it means depending on your situation.
What's Actually Happening in the Austin Market
The median sold price in Austin sits between $440,000 and $460,000, down 16 to 18 percent from the 2022 peak. That's the headline number most people hear.
But a few other numbers matter more for your decision:
Average days on market: 48 to 55 days. In 2022, homes were selling in under 2 weeks. That shift alone tells you buyers have room to negotiate that didn't exist three years ago.
Active listings: roughly 12,000 to 17,000 across the metro. Inventory has grown significantly, which means more selection and less pressure to rush a decision.
Months of supply: 4.7 to 5.9 months. Anything above 6 months is generally considered a buyer's market. We're close to that threshold.
Price reductions: 51 percent of active listings have taken at least one price cut. That's a market telling you sellers are adjusting to reality.
Sold-to-list ratio: 97 to 98 percent. Homes are still selling close to asking price, but buyers are getting concessions built into that number.
What This Means If You're Considering Buying
A buyer's market doesn't mean prices are collapsing. It means leverage has shifted.
You have more time to make a decision. You have more room to negotiate repairs, closing costs, or price. You have more inventory to compare instead of settling for whatever's available.
That's meaningfully different from 2021 and 2022, when buyers waived inspections and offered tens of thousands over asking just to compete.
The Part Most People Get Wrong
They wait for the "bottom" of the market, assuming prices will keep falling and they'll time it perfectly.
Here's the problem with that strategy: nobody rings a bell at the bottom. By the time it's obvious prices have stabilized, competition returns and leverage shifts back to sellers.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates matter as much as price. Rates are currently around 6.5 percent, with projections in the 6.1 to 6.2 percent range through 2027. If rates drop while you're waiting for prices to fall further, you may end up paying more in the long run through a combination of higher rates and renewed competition.
The Framework I Actually Use With Buyers
Rather than trying to time the market, I walk buyers through a different set of questions:
Are you planning to stay 5+ years?
If yes, short-term price fluctuations matter far less than getting into a home that fits your life now. Real estate is a long-term asset. Five to ten year appreciation matters more than this quarter's median price.
Is your financial situation stable?
Job security, emergency savings, and manageable debt matter more than perfect market timing. A buyer's market with unstable finances is still a bad time to buy. A seller's market with strong finances and a long time horizon can still work.
Are you comparing to renting accurately?
Rent increases every year with no equity building. A mortgage payment, while higher initially in some cases, builds equity and can be refinanced if rates drop. Run the actual comparison, not just monthly payment against monthly payment.
Do you have room to negotiate?
In this market, you likely do. Sellers are offering concessions, rate buydowns, and repair credits at rates we haven't seen since before 2021. That negotiating room is real value, even if the sticker price feels high.
Who Should Actually Wait
Buying now isn't right for everyone. I tell people to hold off if:
They're planning to move again within 2 to 3 years, since transaction costs eat into short-term gains.
Their income or job situation feels unstable in the next 6 to 12 months.
They don't have a reasonable emergency fund beyond the down payment and closing costs.
They're buying purely out of pressure from family or peers rather than genuine readiness.
Who Should Consider Moving Forward
On the other hand, this market genuinely favors buyers who:
Have stable income and a 5+ year time horizon.
Have been priced out during the 2021 to 2022 bidding wars and now have more realistic competition.
Want negotiating leverage on price, repairs, or rate buydowns that wasn't available a few years ago.
Are relocating to Austin and need a home regardless of market timing.
The Honest Bottom Line
Nobody can tell you with certainty that prices will be higher or lower a year from now. What I can tell you is what the current data shows: more inventory, more negotiating room, and a market that rewards patience and preparation over urgency.
If your personal financial picture is ready, this is a reasonable market to buy in. If it's not, no market condition changes that.
FAQ: Buying in Austin Right Now
Q: Are home prices in Austin going to keep dropping?
A: Nobody can predict that with certainty. Current data shows stabilization in some segments and continued softness in others. Waiting indefinitely for a bottom often means missing the window when rates or competition shift back.
Q: Is it better to wait for interest rates to drop?
A: If rates drop significantly, you can refinance. If you wait for lower rates and prices rise or competition increases, you may end up paying more overall. Many buyers choose to buy the home now and refinance the rate later.
Q: How much negotiating room do buyers actually have right now?
A: With homes averaging 48 to 55 days on market and over half of listings taking price cuts, there's real room for price negotiation, repair credits, and closing cost assistance.
Q: Should first-time buyers wait for a better market?
A: It depends more on personal financial readiness than market timing. A stable income, adequate savings, and a 5+ year time horizon matter more than trying to catch the exact bottom.
Q: What's considered a buyer's market versus seller's market?
A: Generally, under 3 months of housing supply favors sellers, 3 to 6 months is balanced, and over 6 months favors buyers. Austin currently sits around 4.7 to 5.9 months, close to buyer's market territory.
Q: Is Austin still a good long-term investment?
A: Job growth, population growth, and tech sector presence continue to support long-term demand, even with short-term price corrections. Long-term outlook and short-term market timing are different questions.
Whether now is the right time to buy depends far more on your personal financial picture than on any headline number. I help buyers walk through their actual readiness, not just the market conditions, so the decision makes sense for their life, not just the calendar.
If you're trying to figure out whether this is your moment, let's talk through your specific situation.
(512) 217-3961
[email protected]
— Maria Aguirre
Mi Casa Agency | Keller Williams Lake Travis
