A Market That Is Cooling in Some Ways and Tightening in Others
Austin's housing market is sending two different signals this fall. Homes are sitting longer and prices are slightly lower than a year ago, which favors buyers. At the same time, mortgage rates have climbed back above 7 percent, which takes some of that advantage away.
Here is where the numbers stand and what they mean in practice.
The Numbers
Different trackers measure different things, so I'm giving ranges and naming sources instead of one figure.
Median price. Redfin's mid-year review put the Austin metro median sale price near $427,000, down about 2.4 percent from a year earlier. Other trackers put the metro median closer to $440,000, and the city of Austin proper runs considerably higher, roughly $540,000 to $595,000 depending on the source. Year-over-year declines range from about 2 to 6 percent across sources.
Time on market. Redfin's median days on market was about 89 at mid-year. Unlock MLS data showed an average of 91 days in February, the longest since March 2011. For comparison, homes were routinely selling in under two weeks in early 2022.
Inventory. Estimates of supply range from about 5.3 to 6.5 months, which is at or near the 6-month mark that is generally treated as the line into buyer's market territory.
The long view. Prices remain roughly 20 to 25 percent below the May 2022 peak, and some analysts expect a flat to low-single-digit trend from here rather than a sharp move either way.
The Rate Shock
On the financing side, Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.28 percent as of October 1, up from 7.03 percent the week before and 6.34 percent a year ago. It had been 6.65 percent in late August.
On a $400,000 loan, the difference between 6.34 and 7.28 percent is roughly $250 more per month in principal and interest. That is the real affordability story this fall. Prices are lower, but the payment is higher.
What This Means for Buyers
You have time and leverage. With homes averaging well over 80 days on market, you generally don't need to rush into a decision, and you can negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs, or a rate buydown.
The leverage is real, but so is the payment. Run your numbers at today's rates, not last year's. If rates fall later, you may be able to refinance, so a home you can afford at today's rate with a plan to improve your payment later is a different decision from one that only works at a lower rate. For a closer comparison of how to use concessions, see our post on rate buydowns versus price reductions.
Be selective. In a market with more inventory, the best-priced and best-condition homes still attract attention, while overpriced ones sit.
What This Means for Sellers
Accurate pricing matters more than it has in years. Buyers have options, payments are higher, and an overpriced listing tends to sit, collect reductions, and eventually net less than a correctly priced one. Expect buyers to ask for concessions, and decide in advance what you'll accept. Presentation and condition carry more weight when buyers are comparing several homes. And know your net before you list, because the headline price is only part of the picture. See our guide to what sellers actually walk away with.
Not Every Part of Austin Is the Same
Metro averages hide a lot. Price points under the median, newer-construction areas where builders offer incentives, central neighborhoods, and the Lake Travis and Hill Country markets can behave differently from the headline numbers. A citywide average is a starting point, and the numbers for your specific neighborhood and price range are what matter for your decision.
What I'm Watching
The rate trend, since another move in either direction changes what buyers can afford. How long homes sit in your price range, since time on market is the clearest signal of how much leverage a buyer has. Builder incentives, which can compete directly with resale listings. And the share of listings taking price cuts, a sign of how quickly sellers are adjusting.
How I Help
For buyers, I translate these numbers into an offer strategy for the specific home, based on its days on market, price history, and the seller's likely motivation. For sellers, I build the pricing and net sheet around current conditions, not last year's, so the listing starts with the right price and a clear understanding of what you'll keep.
FAQ: Austin Market Right Now
Q: Is Austin a buyer's market right now?
A: Several indicators, including roughly 5.3 to 6.5 months of supply and homes averaging over 80 days on market, point to buyer-favorable conditions. The picture varies by neighborhood and price point.
Q: Are Austin home prices still dropping?
A: Most trackers show prices modestly lower than a year ago, with declines ranging from about 2 to 6 percent depending on the source, though some analysts expect prices to flatten rather than fall sharply.
Q: How high are mortgage rates right now?
A: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.28 percent as of October 1, 2026. Check current figures when you're ready to buy, since rates move weekly.
Q: Should I wait for rates to come down before buying?
A: It depends on your timeline and finances. If rates fall you may be able to refinance, but waiting also carries the risk that competition or prices shift. Run the numbers for your situation.
Q: How long does it take to sell a home in Austin right now?
A: Trackers show roughly 80 to 90 days on average, though well-priced homes in good condition can move faster.
Q: Where can I find numbers for my specific neighborhood?
A: Ask for a neighborhood-level report. Metro averages can differ significantly from your specific area and price point.
Market conditions shift quickly, and the headline numbers only tell part of the story. I track the data that matters for your specific neighborhood and price point, so your decision to buy or sell is based on current reality.
If you'd like a market snapshot for your area, let's talk through what the numbers mean for your plans.
(512) 217-3961
[email protected]
— Maria Aguirre
Mi Casa Agency | Keller Williams Lake Travis
